Leicester’s 2-2 draw with Everton on Monday night was nothing short of vintage Barclays.
While some might’ve projected a cagey affair between two huge clubs at risk of succumbing to the second tier, the King Power instead played host to an unhinged affair in which both sides were desperate for all three points.
The contest would’ve surely left both sets of supporters optimistic over their respective survival hopes, but the point didn’t do too much to help their causes. Everton remain in 19th on 29 points, while Leicester sit in 16th on 30 points – only escaping the drop on goal difference.
This relegation dogfight looks like being one for the ages, with five teams involved in the battle as we enter the final month of the season.
FiveThirtyEight uses its Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings to predict every fixture throughout the Premier League season. Here’s who they think will drop to the second tier come the end of the campaign after Monday night’s draw.
|
Position |
Team |
Current points |
Projected points |
Chance of relegation % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
16. |
Leicester |
30 |
34 |
30 |
|
17. |
Nottingham Forest |
30 |
34 |
52 |
|
18. |
Leeds |
30 |
33 |
56 |
|
19. |
Everton |
29 |
33 |
63 |
|
20. |
Southampton |
24 |
28 |
98 |
Southampton have all but dropped to the Championship after they were beaten at St. James’ Park on Sunday. They’re projected to finish the season with just 28 points, with the supercomputer giving them just a 2% chance of survival.
The other two relegation spots, however, are much tougher to call. With West Ham, Bournemouth, Wolves, and Crystal Palace all pulling away from the drop zone, four teams remain in the dogfight,
Despite their gutsy performance at Leicester, FiveThirtyEight’s algorithm still believes Everton will get relegated from the top-flight for the first time since 1951.
The data also hasn’t factored into the equation Sam Allardyce’s imminent arrival at Leeds, with these two clubs projected to end the season on 33 points – one behind Nottingham Forest in 17th and Leicester in 16th.
The Foxes currently have a 30% chance of getting relegated, and although the computer projects them to finish on the same number of points as Forest, the likelihood of Steve Cooper’s side returning to the Championship is much higher at 52%.
Leeds’, meanwhile, is 56%, indicating real trouble for a side who spent big and must now hope Allardyce can turn things around.
