Here are some highlights produced by the simulation:
- Manchester City have a 61% chance of winning the Champions League (out of 1,000 simulations).
- Arsenal FC is tipped to go as far as the semifinal stage, but will be knocked out by one of Manchester City or Bayern Munich
- Manchester United will make it to the Round of 16, but won’t progress to the quarterfinal stage
- Newcastle United will also make it as far as the first knockout stage, although they do have a 31% chance of finishing third in their group and dropping into the Europa League
To explain how the Super Computer broke this all down, check out the explanation below:
Data analysts at Best Gambling Sites crunched the raw data points 1000 times to determine as accurate a prediction as possible, to provide the most statistically sound forecast as possible.
These are the raw numbers divided by 1,000 and turned into a percentage and sorted by most likely chance to win. Man City are heavy favourites to win the tournament and won the 1,000 simulations 61.1% of the time.
What the data shows is the likelihood of every team progressing from their group stage, in what position, plus then how far they are likely to progress from there. For instance, Manchester United have a 16.3% chance of winning their group, but an 80.8% chance of finishing second.
From there, the Super Computer has predicted they will have a 97.1% chance of reaching the Round of 16, but then just a 19.7% chance of making the quarterfinals. As there are eight teams with a far higher percentage of reaching the quarterfinals, we can confidently predict this is as far as United will progress.
Of the eight teams with a 60% chance or higher of reaching the quarter-finals, Arsenal and Manchester City are the only other Premier League sides expected to progress. With just a 37.9% chance of reaching the semi-finals, and a 21.9% chance of reaching the final.
Therefore, we can see Bayern Munich and Man City are the two sides most likely to reach the Champions League final, with City overwhelming favourites to be crowned Champions of Europe for a second season running.
As always, the games have to be played on the field and there are a million (or so) different factors that could change every club’s chances. The UCL journey begins now…are you ready?